(Ahmed Saeed*)
The post-World War-II era started with nuclear proliferation throughout the world, including south Asia. In the region, India and Pakistan have achieved the nuclear weaponry system. Game started in the early 1970s when India conducted its first nuclear test. Later on, Pakistan also put efforts to get nuclear arms and hence, succeeded. This nuclear proliferation adversely impacted the regional prosperity and progress in the form of western sanctions, international isolation, regional instability and insecurity, economic decline and bloc politics and hence, both the states introduced their nuclear doctrines. Still nuclear arms race is continued and can only be averted by strict measures such as stagnation of arms race, pre-test notifications and confidence building measures must be taken. All these suggested measures, sooner or later, would lead to nuclear free south Asia.
During the era of cold war, in 1964, China gained nuclear power and India felt insecure which further led India to become a nuclear state. In 1974, during the rule of Indira Gandhi, India conducted its first nuclear test with codename ‘Smiling Buddha’. It was not enough to declare India as a nuclear state so after years’ efforts on May 11, 1998 India conducted 5 nuclear tests and put itself in the list of nuclear states. Moreover, it is vivid enough that India started nuclear arms race in the region. Despite declaring it’s ‘No first use policy’, this nuclear proliferation resulted in international outrage which further paved the way for sanctions and many other implications to India such as stagnation of arms race and suspension of previously approved defense articles and services.
Since independence Pakistan had fought three wars against India on Kashmir issue till 1974. In addition to that, Pakistan also lost its eastern part, Bangladesh, in 1971 war. Moreover, India’s placement among nuclear states posed an existential threat to Pakistan’s territorial integrity. In the response, Pakistan conducted 5 successful nuclear tests on May 28, 1998, during the rule of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, and placed itself among nuclear states. Presently, Pakistan is the only nuclear member state among Muslim states. Later on, Pakistan declared its nuclear doctrine while mentioning the deterrence in order to avoid existential threat posed by Kashmir dispute and hydro-politics. In return, international outrage led to stagnation of arms manufacturing and economic as well as military sanctions. At that time, south Asia was called most dangerous place on Earth by the then US president Bill Clinton.
Amongst the adverse impacts regional instability is the prominent one. South Asia’s regional stability is predicted by Indo-Pak relations hence, peace between them will entail peace in the region and vice versa. Likewise, nuclear proliferation here will bolster other neighboring countries, such as Iran, to achieve nuclear weaponry system. In addition to that, southeast Asian region will feel insecure and hence, it will move towards achieving nuclear capabilities.
Despite being developing nations, both states’ expenditure on defense is huge. For the ongoing fiscal year, India has announced $70.2bn to spend on defense which consists of 13% of government’s total expenditures. While Pakistan allocated $8.8bn for defense in its last budget. If this huge spending is spent on the betterment of people, living standard in both the countries could be improved. Moreover, high defense expenditure may result into economic decline such as poverty, unemployment and poor living standards. Similarly, nuclear proliferation will further strengthen the bloc politics and hence, north south divide, which will pose serious threats to developing nations.
Till the date, both the arch rivals have not signed ‘Non-Proliferation Treaty’ (NPT) and Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) yet. The former US president ‘Donald Trump’ asked former Pakistani PM ‘Imran Khan’ to stay away from nukes, PMIK denied while saying that first India would have to do so. According to current figures, India has 156 nuclear warheads while Pakistan has 165 and both the rivals have achieved ‘nuclear triad’ as well.
In order to eradicate the adverse impacts of nuclear proliferation in south Asia, nuclear arms race must come to an end. Both countries must ensure cooperation to maintain peace across the borders. Deployment of troops on the Line of Control (LoC) must be limited and resolution of Kashmir dispute may play vital role in this regard. In addition to that, end of hydro-politics may also ensure peace in the region. While testing nuclear experiments, both nations must notify their neighboring countries e.g. China and Iran, so that misunderstanding can be avoided. There must be common defense exercises which will build confidence between armed forces as well as give a clear message to regional enemies.
Development of nuclear weapons in south Asia was initiated in 1970s specifically by India, though, it was revealed in the end of century by both countries. Such developments gave setback to the western world which further led to economic as well as military sanctions. Currently, both states have gained latest nuclear technologies including ‘nuclear powered submarine’ purchased by India from US, while from Pakistan’s side deal is still in the progress with China. Regional instability will make region more vulnerable to living threats including poverty and unemployment. Bloc politics will lead to economic disparities in the region and all these circumstances can be averted by compromised policies of both countries. Common defense activities and peace agreements can tackle too the fire, fueled by nuclear weapons.
*Ahmed Saeed is freelance columnist based in Islamabad and can be reached at ahmeds7061@gmail.com
