Labour Votes Plummet in Areas with High Muslim Population Including Blackburn, Bradford
LONDON: Recent research indicates that the British-Muslim vote could be pivotal in approximately 100 constituencies, including many of the crucial swing seats across the country. This finding emerges from a report by two distinct groups: “The Muslim Vote,” a new campaign group, and the right-wing “Henry Jackson Society” (HJS).
According to these organizations, there are between 92 and 120 constituencies where Muslims comprise more than 10% of the population, making their vote highly influential. The HJS’s research on religious diversity within UK constituencies estimates that in 120 constituencies, the Muslim vote could be particularly decisive, especially in swing seats.
The HJS noted that among the 220 most marginal seats in the general election, Islam is the largest minority religion in 129 of them (58.6%). Following Islam, the second-largest minority religion in marginal seats is Hinduism, present in 23 of them (10.5%), followed by Sikhism in six marginal seats (2.7%), and Judaism in three (1.4%).
Political consultancy Electoral Calculus defines a marginal seat as one where the margin of victory is expected to be 10% or less. It identified 220 such seats, constituting a third (33.8%) of all available seats. Martin Baxter, chief executive of Electoral Calculus, highlighted that their most recent MRP poll with Savanta found religion to be a “significant factor” in voting behaviors.
This religious influence on voting was demonstrated during the local elections earlier this year. Dozens of candidates around the country ran on a pro-Gaza platform and succeeded in defeating their Labour rivals. This shift dealt a substantial blow to Labour in areas it had relied on for decades. As a result, Labour votes saw a significant decline in regions with high Muslim populations, including Blackburn, Bradford, Pendle, Oldham, Luton, London, and Manchester. If this trend continues in the upcoming July 4 elections, Labour’s support in these areas could diminish further.
“The Muslim Vote,” established by grassroots Muslim organizations to encourage Muslim electoral participation, has pinpointed around 92 seats where Muslim voters constitute more than 10% of the electorate. This group aims to mobilize the Muslim community to ensure their voices are heard in the political arena.
Despite the potential influence of the Muslim vote, it is important to note that Muslims are a diverse group with varied political, ethnic, and sectarian affiliations. Consequently, they do not vote as a monolithic bloc. This diversity means that while the Muslim vote can be significant in certain constituencies, it does not guarantee uniform support for any particular party.
The Labour Party, traditionally a favorite among Muslim voters, has recently faced challenges in maintaining this support. The decline in Labour votes in high Muslim population areas is partly attributed to dissatisfaction with the party’s stance on international issues, particularly the Israel-Palestine conflict. Many Muslim voters feel that Labour has not sufficiently supported Palestinian rights, leading to a shift towards candidates and parties that align more closely with their views on this and other issues.
The British-Muslim vote holds considerable potential to influence election outcomes in a substantial number of constituencies. Both “The Muslim Vote” campaign and the HJS emphasize the importance of this demographic in determining the results of the upcoming elections. However, the diversity within the Muslim community means that their voting patterns cannot be easily predicted, and political parties must engage with this group thoughtfully and respectfully to gain their support.
