By Ahmed Saeed*
In the arena of global politics, ‘there are no permanent friends and foes’. This little phrase describes the whole international politics and one of its prominent examples include the tilt of India towards Afghan Taliban. A wondrous shift in India’s policy has created new dynamics in the regional politics. Historically, all the regional states including China, Russia and Iran have been in relations with Taliban through one way or the other except India. As a matter of fact, India has been supporting anti-Taliban forces but all of a sudden shift in policy is the Hobson’s choice and is caused by heavy investment of India in Afghanistan. On the other hand, Taliban must ensure that their soil is not used by notorious elements which may cause turmoil in the region.
Historically, after the Taliban’s ouster from power in 2001, India supported successive governments in Afghanistan and aided extensively in the socio-economic development of the country. Though, it did not send its troops to fight against Taliban but provided training to military forces, police, bureaucracy and teachers. In addition to that, India opened its embassy in Kabul and consulates in Herat, Kandahar, Jalalabad, and Mazari Sharif. However, when Taliban captured Afghanistan, India called back its diplomats and found it an avenue of escape.
At this stage of game, as to some Indian high officials, they have been engaging with Taliban officials behind the closed doors. Additionally, few months ago, Taliban leader Sher Mohammed Abbas Stanekzai, residing in Doha, requested Indian ambassador to Qatar, Deepak Mittal, to meet and hence, it was done. Likewise, right after the Russian invasion over Ukraine, India provided wheat aid of 50,000 metric tonnes to Afghanistan via Pakistan on February 26, 2022. Moreover, Indian officials have visited Afghanistan recently while claiming the supervision of aid. All such engagements give the positive gesture at diplomatic ends in between both the countries.
The reason behind this shift is India’s will to secure its strategic as well as economic interests. India has spent $2billion in infrastructure and development in Afghanistan in the form of roads, dams, hospitals etc. India has built a highway named ‘Delaram-Zaranj Highway’-a 218 km long trade route which connects Iran with Afghanistan and other Asian states- to protect its trade interests. Further, India has reduced its dependency on Pakistan’s land through ‘Chahbahar Port’- a sea-rout from India to Afghanistan and other Asian states. ‘Salma Dam’ on river Harirud is also a part of that hefty investment. In addition to that, in November 2020, India announced 150 more projects worth $80million in the country.
In case of strategic interests, India is hostile towards Pakistan and has been designing nefariously while using Afghan land. Spying activities of ‘Kulbhushan Jhadav’, an Indian RAW agent, in Pakistan and ammunition supply to Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) through Afghan border are enlisted among those designs. Similarly, pro-Indian rulers of Afghanistan such as Ashraf Ghani and Hamid Karzai have been blaming Pakistan despite its key role in Afghan peace-process.
Additionally, in the reflection of Sino-US rivalry, India may play a role of proxy against China while using Afghan land. The duality of US can be gauged through the fact that right after the fall of Kabul, US announced that any state having economic relations with Taliban would face economic sanctions. But in the described scenario, US is just a spectator because ultimately it will serve US’ policy to contain China. Similarly, India’s own interest to play tactics against Pakistan will also be served.
On the contrary, Afghanis share ethnic, cultural and regional bonds with Pakistan. Additionally, Pakistan too has provided sanctuaries to their 3million refugees resulting from ‘war on terror’. Hence, their tilt towards anti-Pakistan elements would weaken this stronger bond. Nevertheless, regional peace will also be deteriorated. In accordance to that, Taliban leadership should think about the region’s peace and country’s progress as well. Moreover, they should remember Pakistan’s efforts in peace-process and must be vigilant to India’s tactics against Pakistan. Otherwise, these historic and durable relations will be under the harrow.
Upon considering all the facts, it seems that entirely opposite shift in policy is the only left option for India. Being an anti-Taliban to Taliban-friendly element shows that how national interests cause shift in policy. In order to serve strategic interests and save billions of investments, Indian officials have paid a visit to Afghanistan while giving a peaceful gesture in bilateral relations. It is undoubted that India has tremendously performed in the socio-economic sector of Afghanistan and after fall of Kabul, Taliban ensured that these developmental projects would not be harmed. Escape of Indian diplomatic staff from Afghanistan made Taliban trustworthy. Likewise, Taliban should ensure the region’s peace and strive hard to dispense prosperity in the country. Thus, response from the Taliban side will determine the upcoming dimensions of regional politics.
*Ahmed Saeed is an IR Analyst based in Islamabad.
