India is expected to experience above-average rainfall in September, following a surplus of rain in August, according to Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the director-general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The rainfall in September is predicted to exceed 109% of the 50-year average, potentially impacting summer-sown crops like rice, cotton, soybeans, corn, and pulses, which are typically harvested from mid-September.
While this excessive rainfall could lead to crop damage and contribute to food inflation, it may also enhance soil moisture levels, benefiting the planting of winter-sown crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpea. India, as the world’s second-largest producer of wheat, sugar, and rice, has already imposed various export restrictions on these commodities, and any crop losses due to heavy rainfall could prompt the government to extend these curbs.
The monsoon season, vital to India’s nearly $3.5 trillion economy, delivers about 70% of the annual rainfall needed to irrigate farms and replenish water reserves. This year’s monsoon has already brought 6.9% more rainfall than average since its onset on June 1, with July seeing 9% more rain and August experiencing 15.3% above-average rainfall, particularly in the northwestern and central regions, leading to flooding in some areas.
Typically, the monsoon begins its retreat by mid-September from the northwestern state of Rajasthan, concluding across the country by mid-October. However, this year’s forecast suggests a delayed withdrawal, with continued heavy rainfall expected over Rajasthan and Gujarat starting around September 15. This delay could pose a risk to summer-sown crops that are ready for harvest, as noted by a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.
