How likely is it that Hamza would keep his CM seat following the vote recount?

What are Hamza Shahbaz’s chances of regaining the Punjab chief ministership following today’s (Friday) Punjab Assembly session vote recount?

The Lahore High Court (LHC) ordered a recount of the ballots cast in the April 16 election of Punjab chief minister while excluding the votes of the PTI’s 25 dissident MPAs to determine whether Hamza still has a majority without the backing of the dissidents.
The move of the dissident lawmakers violated Article 63 A(1)(b) of the Constitution. Hamza Shehbaz received 197 votes, including 25 from PTI dissidents, four from independents, and one from the Pakistan Rah-e-Haq Party (PRHP) MPA. During the April 16 Punjab chief minister election, five rebel PML-N lawmakers voted against Hamza.

The magic number needed to demonstrate majority is 186.

According to the LHC’s decision, after recounting the votes today, Hamza Shehbaz’s tally will be reduced to 172 votes due to the deletion of 25 votes cast by PTI dissident lawmakers.
In this situation, re-election would be held under Article 130(4) of the Constitution, which states that in this second round of voting, a member does not need a majority of 186 votes to be chosen as chief minister, but just more votes than any other candidate.