COP 27: a platform for climate change?
ISLAMABAD:
UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report, issued on October 27, 2022, observed that the world is still falling short of the Paris climate goals, with no realistic pathway to 1.5°C.
According to the flagship study, countries’ NDCs or pledges since last year are “woefully inadequate” and make little impact in 2030 emissions. The world is on track for a 2.8°C temperature rise, considerably above the Paris Agreement objective. Limiting global warming to 2°C and 1.5°C requires 30–45% reductions in emissions.
The UNEP report sets the stage for one of the most critical climate dialogues, especially in the context of a year marked by international political turmoil, global inflation, severe climate catastrophes, and worldwide energy crisis, all of which have distracted leaders and complicated efforts to address climate change.
COP27 will build on the outcomes of COP26, including the signing of the Glasgow climate pact requiring signatories to present stronger action plans within a shortened timeframe and the agreement on the Paris rule book outlining how Paris accord signatories will structure their NDCs to reduce emissions.
COP27 aims to keep global temperature rise to well below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C, improve adaptability and resilience, and mobilize money for reduction, adaptation, and loss and damage.
Despite noble goals, COP conferences have turned into a display of hypocrisy as politicians, business magnates, and lobbyists make impassioned pleas and promises, only to breach their obligations immediately after the performance closes. They allow global leaders to escape domestic problems and bolster their self-esteem before a “sympathetic” international audience.
In his comments on the UNEP report and COP27, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said, “Commitments to net zero are worthless without strategies, policies, and actions to back it up… Greenwashing, false movers, and late movers are unsustainable. We must reduce emissions before climate disaster strikes.
COP27 should focus on the 3R global climate strategy, coined by the Climate Crisis Advisory Group (CCAG): ‘Reduce’ (emissions), ‘Remove’ (GHG emissions), and ‘Repair’ (the earth) to achieve the following important outcomes.
1) Implement promises. A 2021 examination of the efficacy of climate promises in the banking sector revealed that worldwide banks gave roughly $740bn in financing to coal, oil, and gas businesses. COP27 should focus on a concrete “policies-to-action” dialogue, identifying opportunities for countries, especially those responsible for cumulative global emissions stock, to announce further policy changes and implement stringent accountability standards to ensure that pledges are doing enough to reach the Paris accords.
2) Ensure climate money for warming-affected countries. In earlier summits, many coal-dependent developing economies felt cornered since focusing on coal while neglecting oil and gas would hurt them. These nations feel compelled to switch from fossil fuels to renewables without developed-country help. Some governments, like India, agree to alter their NDCs but condition their implementation on foreign contributions. The fairness argument is that industrialized nations produced most of the world’s emissions. Now that they have money, these nations can pursue climate-friendly legislation. They should solve the situation they caused.
To improve help for vulnerable countries and foster confidence amongst states, bigger economies must prioritize climate action flows for developing countries. The conference must ensure the Paris rulebook is fully implemented and the private sector is mobilized to contribute more efficiently. World Resources Institute estimates $600 billion in climate finance by 2025 to tackle climate change.
3) Use natural or geoengineered solutions. Despite adaptation’s importance, we can’t adapt our way out of the climate catastrophe. Nature-based solutions can help us cut emissions. These strategies entail conserving, repairing, or better managing ecosystems to remove carbon dioxide. COP26 recognized the need for nature-based solutions, and COP27 will likely focus on more investment and support. Less than 10% of climate money goes to nature-based solutions. Recent research suggests that deploying nature-based solutions successfully can help meet climate targets.
Pakistan rarely serves on working groups or drafting committees at these conferences. Due to this year’s devastating floods and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s support for a climate action plan, Pakistan is ideally positioned to join other climate-impacted developing countries in seeking reparations, an issue developed nations have repeatedly pushed down the agenda in previous conferences. Potential recipient nations, like Pakistan, should not expect a major injection of reparations after COP27 to bail them out of budgetary and foreign currency challenges. As shown by the onerous GCF requirements, reparations, when released, will be subject to strict documentation and compliance rules covering usage, project completion, and performance standards.
As COP27 approaches, the biggest threat is the expanding gap between eloquent rhetoric and genuine climate action. Greta Thunberg says, “The COPs don’t work unless we mobilize.”
In two weeks, we’ll see if COP27 seized this chance. Otherwise, the global climate strategy will fail.
Fulbright alumnus interested in sustainable energy and climate change
