In the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, Vice President Kamala Harris has expanded her lead over former President Donald Trump to 45% versus 41%, showing a four-point advantage compared to the slim one-point lead she held in late July. The poll, conducted over eight days ending Wednesday, has a 2% margin of error and indicates a significant shift in voter support since Harris officially entered the presidential race.
Harris’s increased lead is particularly notable among women and Hispanic voters. She now holds a commanding 13-point advantage over Trump among these groups, leading 49% to 36% among women and Hispanics. This is a substantial increase from her previous nine-point lead among women and six-point lead among Hispanics reported in July’s polls. The gains among these demographics are critical as they have historically played a significant role in election outcomes.
Conversely, Trump maintains his lead among white voters and men, although the margin is consistent with earlier polls. His advantage among voters without a college degree has narrowed to seven points from 14 points in July, suggesting a slight shift in support that could be influential in key battleground states.
The shift in the race comes in the wake of President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 election on July 21, following a poor debate performance against Trump that led to increased pressure from fellow Democrats. Harris’s entry into the race has generated new enthusiasm among Democratic voters, with 73% of registered Democrats expressing heightened excitement about voting in November since her candidacy was announced.
The impact of Harris’s campaign is evident not just in national polls but also in swing states, which are crucial for securing an Electoral College victory. While the national lead is promising for Harris, the final outcome will hinge on performance in these critical states.
Republican strategist Matt Wolking, who worked on Trump’s 2020 campaign, acknowledges that Harris’s improved numbers present a more challenging scenario for Trump. He suggests that Trump needs to maintain focus and avoid alienating potential supporters who might be inclined toward him due to dissatisfaction with Biden.
The poll period partially overlapped with the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago, where Harris formally accepted her party’s nomination. The enthusiasm generated during this period may have contributed to her current polling advantage, though it remains to be seen if this momentum will sustain through the election.
Overall, the widening lead for Harris reflects a dynamic shift in the presidential race, with her gaining significant ground among key voter demographics while Trump’s support remains strong among his traditional base. As the election approaches, the effectiveness of Harris’s campaign strategy and Trump’s responses will be critical in shaping the final results.
