Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defence minister, has warned his counterparts in the west that the conflict in Ukraine is on the verge of “uncontrolled escalation” amid indications that the Kremlin is considering how to react to yet another anticipated battlefield loss near the strategically important southern city of Kherson.
Moscow appears to be laying the groundwork for yet another escalation, with Russian troops erecting new defences for a fresh Ukrainian offensive in Luhansk in the country’s east as well, despite debunked suggestions that Kiev may be getting ready to use a dirty bomb as a “false-flag operation” to blame Russia.
In an effort to deter Kyiv and its western allies, who have been providing Ukraine with cutting-edge weapons, information, and training, Russian authorities, including Vladimir Putin, have frequently warned that Moscow may be willing to use a nuclear weapon.
Shoigu spoke on the phone for the second time in three days with the US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, and addressed the “rapidly deteriorating situation” with his contemporaries in the UK, France, and Turkey. Austin reportedly warned Shoigu he “rejected any excuse for Russian aggression,” according to the Pentagon.
Shoigu asserted that Ukraine could use a “dirty bomb”—conventional explosives loaded with radioactive material—to worsen the situation without offering any supporting data.
Analysts have noted that a “dirty bomb” would be of little use to Ukraine on the battlefield, especially given that its forces are retaking significant portions of the country using conventional weapons. Instead, they believe that Russia is using the claim as an excuse for its own planned escalation.
Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the president of Ukraine, claimed in an overnight speech that Moscow’s accusation was evidence that Moscow was preparing such a strike and would accuse Ukraine.
If Russia calls and claims that Ukraine is purportedly getting ready for something, it only means that Russia has already done it,” Zelenskiy added. “Therefore, everyone understands everything perfectly when the Russian minister of defence organises a phone carousel today and calls foreign ministers with tales about the alleged “dirty” nuclear bomb. recognises the source of all the ugliness that this war has to offer.
Shoigu’s remarks are consistent with Moscow’s troubling pattern of escalatory actions as the war’s tide has converted against it, most lately with its use of “kamikaze” drones and missiles to target civilian infrastructure in response to Kyiv’s attack on the Kerch strait bridge in Crimea earlier this month
Following the meetings, Britain, France, and the US issued a unified statement in which they rebuffed Russia’s threat of a “dirty bomb” and pledged to defend Ukraine “for as long as it takes.”
They said: “Our countries made clear that we all reject Russia’s obviously erroneous assertions that Ukraine is getting ready to use a dirty bomb on its own territory.” “Any attempt to escalate under the guise of this claim would be exposed by the world,” the author writes.
The International Institute for Strategic Affairs top scholar for Russia and Eurasia Nigel Gould-Davies tweeted: “Russia is escalating: attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, apparent strikes on western connection infrastructure, and mining of Novaya Kakhovka dam. and spending months tinkering with nuclear fire in Zaporizhzhiya.
Therefore, it is difficult to interpret these calls as anything other than Shoigu pressing Putin’s bluffs or clearing the path for Russian nuclear use. Indeed, nuclear (ie fission [rather than a dirty bomb]). A dirty bomb would violate the nuclear ban but have minimal impact.
“I worry that there is too much motivated reasoning in discrediting potential Russian nuclear use,” he continued. It won’t because we don’t want it to happen and/or don’t understand the relevance. But when it loses, Russia is faced with the logic of fewer options. Escalation on all fronts is increasingly probable.
