The British-Muslim vote could play a crucial role in around 100 constituencies including in majority of swing seats around the country, new research has found.
A new campaign group called “The Muslim Vote” and the right-wing “Henry Jackson Society” (HJS) have put the number of seats at 92 and 120 respectively, stating that the population is more than 10% Muslims in around 100 seats.
The Henry Jackson Society’s research on religious diversity in UK constituencies puts the number at 120 where Muslim vote can play a major role, especially in swing seats.
The HJS said that of the 220 most marginal seats in the general election, Islam is the largest minority religion in 129 of them (58.6%); the second largest minority religion in marginal seats is Hinduism in 23 of them (10.5%), followed by Sikhism in six marginal seats (2.7%), and Judaism in three (1.4%).
The swing seats were identified by the political consultancy Electoral Calculus, which defines a marginal seat as one where the margin of victory is expected to be 10% or less.
The 220 marginal seats at the general election make up a third (33.8%) of all available seats. Martin Baxter, chief executive of Electoral Calculus, said that the results of their most recent MRP poll with Savanta found that religion is a “significant factor” in how people vote.
A demonstration of this came when in the local elections earlier this year, dozens of candidates around the country ran on a Gaza ticket and defeated their Labour rivals — dealing a huge blow to the Labour in areas it took for granted for decades.
Labour votes plummeted in areas with a high Muslim population including Blackburn, Bradford, Pendle, Oldham, Luton, London and Manchester. If the same pattern is repeated at the July 4 elections at the hands of the Gaza candidates, the Labour support will collapse further in these areas.
The Muslim Vote, a campaign group set up by grassroots Muslim organisations, to encourage Muslim voting participation has identified around 92 seats where the Muslim voters are above 10% of the total vote.
However, all agree that Muslims are a diverse group and don’t vote in unison or en block. They are divided on political, ethnic and sectarian lines.
